DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has conducted a scenario analysis to assess the potential impact of ongoing tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkish tourism, which ranks as the country’s third-largest export sector. The analysis, conducted by Alper Tekin using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator, is based on data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) Economic Impact Report 2025. Türkiye’s geographical and economic ties to the region mean it could be structurally affected by these conflicts, particularly since six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, including Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, are located within 3,000 kilometers of the Iran–Israel axis. The tourism industry is crucial to Türkiye, contributing over 11 percent of its GDP and providing approximately three million jobs.
The Crisis Impact Simulator runs deterministic scenarios without making forecasts. Instead, it utilizes WTTC and World Bank data, supported by a generative-AI layer for narrative explanations. Tekin emphasizes the platform’s “zero hallucinations” policy, ensuring that each numeric output directly corresponds to a verified data source. The platform outlines three key scenarios: Regional escalation, Russian outbound shock, and TRY/USD volatility shock. In the event of regional escalation, the simulator predicts a negative impact on European leisure demand, particularly from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands, although EU business travel might prove more resilient.
In a scenario where Russian outbound travel experiences a shock, the simulator anticipates a 20 to 35 percent decline in Russian arrivals to Türkiye over a year, primarily affecting areas like Antalya and Muğla that rely heavily on Russian charters. This decline could be driven by increased sanctions, payment issues, and pressure on the ruble. Meanwhile, a volatility shock between the Turkish lira and US dollar could make Türkiye a more affordable destination for international tourists but might simultaneously reduce domestic leisure spending as local households adjust their budgets.
According to Tekin, the Crisis Impact Simulator serves as a planning tool for destination management organizations and operators. It is designed to help them prepare for potential scenarios before they occur, rather than reacting after the fact. The platform’s full simulator outputs, which include detailed analyses of segment vulnerabilities and potential mitigation strategies, are available to credentialed media upon request. Additionally, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module offers weekly risk scores for 42 countries across six tourism risk categories.
DataGreat is built around the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, encompassing 42 countries and 26,880 verified data points. Its suite of products includes a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator. The platform is operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye.